A Political Analysis

        I watch a lot of news and I find it strange that I have never seen the analysis I am going to put forward concerning the Republican Presidential campaign.  As of last Tuesday, Donald Trump has won 15 states plus DC, Ted Cruz has won eleven states, and Marco Rubio has won one state plus Puerto Rico.  Rubio and Kasich are probably irrelevant at this point.

        Political commentators come up with all kinds of ideas as to why each candidate won or lost every state, but I they missed one analysis.  We need to look at which states were caucuses and which were primaries. 

        The only state Rubio won was the Minnesota caucus.  He also won the primary in Puerto Rico, which could almost be considered his home. 

        Cruz won eleven states.  All were caucuses except for primaries in his home state of Texas and Idaho.  His win in Texas makes sense, but I don’t understand Idaho except the state might be pretty far right and associate with Cruz. 

        Trump has won every primary except for Texas, Idaho, and the territory of Puerto Rico.  What does this tell us? 

        As I mentioned in a previous blog, there is a big difference between a caucus and a primary.  I lived in Iowa and am familiar with how a caucus works.  A caucus is a little like management by committee.  One or two strong individuals can, and do control the results of a caucus.  This means that the party establishment has a large influence on the outcome of a caucus.  This explains why Cruz won seven caucuses and Rubio won one.  Trump did win the Nevada and Hawaii caucuses.  Maybe there is not a strong Republican establishment in those two states.

        The party establishment has less influence on the outcome of a primary, because voters are alone in that voting booth and can vote their true feelings.  Primaries can be open or closed.  For example, in a closed Republican primary, only previously registered Republicans can vote. 

        In an open primary, anyone can vote for candidates in either party, but not both.  This means independents and even Democrats can vote in the Republican primary for the person of their choice. 

        The party establishment will have more control in a closed primary than in an open primary.  This may explain why Cruz won Idaho. 

        Another interesting fact is that the number of people voting in Republican primaries is up an average of 65%, while Democratic primary voters are down 35%.  This represents millions of people who had not voted in a Republican primary before.  Since Trump won these primaries, it is safe to assume the increase in voting is due to him being in the race. 

        The Republican Party establishment is doing everything possible to stop Trump.  Their claim is that he is not really a conservative and they don’t know what he will do if elected.  I think they know exactly what he will do.  They fear he will put an end to the current big government establishment and the growth of government. 

        In spite of the Washington and the Republican establishment, Trump wins if the public gets to vote.  This is also in spite of being outspent many times over.  It is clear that the voting public is totally fed up with big government, big money, the Washington D.C. establishment, and the political elite.  They see Trump as a solution and love his lack of political correctness.

        I have known people who do not exercise their right to vote.  Their attitude was that it was all rigged and their vote did not count anyway, so why vote.   People are frightened for our freedoms, and are voting in the primaries for what they perceive to be a common sense change. 

        The increased interest in the Republican primaries provides a great opportunity for the party, which has been in decline for the last couple decades.  If the Republican Party accepts what the people want, it could rise to great heights.  If they continue to support the establishment, the party may be finished.  Either way, the old Republican Party will cease to exist.